Historic Fraser River Sockeye Run of 2025 Far Exceeds Forecasts 

If you hadn’t spotted it yet, the DFO made a temporary opening for sockeye retention on August 14th:

Fishery Notice – Fisheries and Oceans Canada

Subject: FN0810-RECREATIONAL – Salmon – Sockeye – Areas 11 to 15, 17 to 20, 111, 121, 123 to 127, and Subareas 16-1, 16-19 to 16-21, 28-1, 28-2, 28-7 – Opening – Effective August 16, 2025

Effective 00:01 hours August 16, 2025, until 23:59 August 24, 2025, the daily limit of Sockeye salmon is four (4) in the following waters:

– Areas 11 to 15;
– Subareas 16-1 and 16-19 to 16-21;
– Areas 17 to 20;
– Subareas 28-1, 28-2 and 28-7;
– Areas 111 and 121, 123 to 127.

Effective 00:01 hours August 25, 2025, the daily limit for Sockeye salmon reverts back to zero (0) per day in all waters listed above.

The State of Fraser Sockeye Salmon

The Fraser River is experiencing a sockeye salmon run of historic proportions, with in-season estimates soaring past pre-season forecasts and sparking cautious optimism among harvesters and conservationists alike. While the initial forecast for 2025 was a modest 2.9 million sockeye, the actual return is now estimated to be well over 6 million fish, a number not seen on this specific four-year cycle in over two decades.

Source: 2025 Management – Fraser Sockeye and Pink salmon Fraser Forum #2 February 2025

Dr. Marvin Rosenau, Freshwater Fisheries Chair posted on X and Facebook, “UPGRADED FOR AUG 13 DATA: 2025 provided a remarkable return for Early Stuart sockeye salmon coming back to the Fraser River, and I noted that in an earlier post. The Early Summer run fish were also strong, coming back 2 times predicted. The Summer run component also appears to have had an amazing jump in numbers over pre-season prediction values. Below I plotted the cumulative sum of the Pacific Salmon Commission seine test fishery numbers from August 1 to August 12. The difference between this year and the brood line going back to 2001 is astonishing. Most of these are Summer-run fish with Lates (Adams, Shuswap, Birkenhead, Weaver, etc) starting to trickle in. The hesitation by DFO in opening the fisheries to sport and commercial seem to be the possible catches of co-mingling Lates combined with the potential for elevated mortality related to above average water temperatures.”

Source: Marvin Rosenau Facebook Post

The dramatic increase from the initial forecast to the current estimate has been a major topic of discussion in fishing communities across British Columbia. The run’s early component, the Early Stuart run, saw an exceptionally high return, coming in at over 600% higher than predicted (Source: Pacific Angler, August 8, 2025). This abundance is providing opportunities that were previously thought impossible for the season.

Sockeye fishing is for all ages. Dad Jeremy and four year old son Holden fishing for sockeye salmon in July 2023 had an amazing day on the water. Source Island Fisherman Brag Board Submission

In a letter to Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) dated August 12, 2025, a coalition of recreational fishing groups, including the Fraser River Salmon Society and the B.C. Wildlife Federation, pressed for an immediate fishery opening. The letter argues that an immediate opening would “have little if any measurable impact on Late run fish, generate between $17 and $31 million in expenditures, increase funding for conservation through licence sales, and most importantly, provide food security” (Source: The Chilliwack Progress, August 14, 2025).

The unexpected size of the run has prompted a variety of reactions from different sectors. Paul Kershaw, a commercial fisherman who represents gillnet harvesters, told the Delta Optimist that the numbers were “out of this world” and that the DFO’s management approach had been slow to react to the record numbers (Source: Delta Optimist, August 14, 2025).

Sockeye Fishing Vancouver Island Photo: Joel Unickow

DFO has affirmed that First Nations fisheries for food, social, and ceremonial purposes are given first priority to fish. The agency noted that further opportunities for First Nations, as well as commercial and recreational fisheries, would be assessed as more information on the run is collected. A DFO statement to CBC News added that while it is “not possible to attribute the scale of the returns to any single factor,” the large return would not have occurred without the combined efforts of First Nations, and the federal and provincial governments to restore fish passage at the Big Bar landslide (Source: CBC News, August 17, 2025).

Fraser River, Photo Harry Beugelink Shutterstock 304189289

The Pacific Salmon Commission’s weekly reports confirm the in-season abundance. The run’s spectacular performance has led to a major reassessment of harvest plans and has highlighted the economic and cultural importance of the Fraser River sockeye.

Pacific Salmon Report

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